Posts (page 2)
Last night my wife and I went to see The Strangers. The audience and critic reactions have been mixed. One thing I've noticed is about the discussion on whether or not the events in the film were "true", because the film says it was "based on true events", and the opening of the move gives two names and a date, implying this was an unsolved murder case. The real-life inspiration was apparently the 1981 Keddie murders, which are still unsolved. Was it wrong for the movie to not be clearly labeled?
I usually take truth claims in entertainment with a grain of salt. I don't know why Oprah was so mad at Jame Frey, other than he might have overrepresented himself on her show (I think a more savvy author could have gotten around the whole thing). Gladiator was all wrong about Roman history, and 300 wasn't even attempting to be fully accurate. But still, people want to know the truth, or at least want to know people are being truthful when they say something is "true".
There's something very powerful about that word. As soon as we know something is factual, we take a greater interest. Look at how well email chain letters take off. With a dash of accurate-sounding statements here and there, they take off. Interestingly, research has shown (I'll have to dig it up) that people won't remember a correction, they'll remember the original statement. That doesn't happen right away, but when they recall it much later. It's just hard for our brains to keep it all sorted out without consistent effort.
This is where I start to have trouble with hype. Hype isn't necessarily false, and the results of something that is being sold are true. I really want to make sure the hype doesn't overshadow what's true. This relates to Sheridan's very solid analysis of a Dan Kennedy sales letter, though it relates to copywriting and marketing in general. There's a dichotomy between what people experience with interacting with hype, and what they experience when they're working with what is real. In any marketing I do, I want to make sure that people are OK with the transition. Like The Stranges, which my wife and I did like, I want to be sure that people enjoy the experience at the end.
Ah, the season finale of Lost. I've been a fan of the show since the beginning. I think there's something about people that can addicted to mystery. There are people I know who didn't get into the show, and others who have given up on it. But for the people who are hooked, the show hits a sweet spot; just enough suspense and payoff to keep us going to the end.
It reminds me of Sheridan's recent breakdown of a sales letter. In that letter, Dan Kennedy uses the lure of mystery to build up desire for the course that he's selling. Mystery is a powerful tool in a lot of different settings. As long as there is a credible hook for the mystery, and a promise of a payoff, people put in the effort to find out The Answer.
Ah, The Answer. It's why I'm watching Lost. It's why people take courses, read books, even start new enterprises. Because something we learn, say, or do, will give us what we want. Resolution. Payoff. The Answer is the key to everything that we're looking for.
Getting into the internet as a business tool and not just an entertainment system, I see a lot of people selling The Answer. People who want to sell you a system. Coaching. Software. Or refer you to someone else's product. That's cool; commerce makes the world go round. But really, there is only so much new under the sun. Once you've gotten the information, there's still another part of The Answer to go.
So, let me tell you what I think The Answer is: effort. At some point, you need to step away from the coaches, and get in the game yourself. You can always go to back to them for advice, or even use them on an ongoing basis. But you've got to be in the game for yourself. The coaches, authors, etc. they've made their money. They know what they do works. And it works because they did it.
I'm at the close of a internet marketing course, and I think everyone's made a great start with their websites and blogs. Probably almost everyone reading this blog was in that course. As it comes to an end, I really want to encourage everyone to stick together. If we stop, we fail. Kevin's a great coach, and has taught us a lot; heck, we're probably not all caught up on what's he's taught already! But there's a lot more to this than taking a course, or several courses. Now is the time that we sink or swim.
So, in addition to Operation Blog Post (which we should treat more like John McCain than Barack Obama), I want to suggest an additional challenge. We've got a lot of summer ahead. Let's band together and each put out an ebook. We can form groups to offer feedback, or all evaluate each book in some way. It's a big step, but I think it would be a great second offensive for our crew to undertake. Anyone interested?
I'll pimp Gaming the Vote again, because it's an election season, and I think it was a really good read. William Poundstone has a way of walking you through what would usually be very obtuse material. Whereas as a lot of other books are informational, this one really has an activist side to it. I was talking about voter rationality earlier, and there was a lot of cynicism about both the average voter and politician. Poundstone's book discusses the people who are really looking at the system itself, and not merely the players.
The thing that these people are looking at is the voter itself. We have what is called a plurality vote: the very simple most-votes-wins approach. This allows for problems like vote-splitting, and results like we've had in Florida. Other approaches are Instant Run-Off Voting, Borda Count, Condorcent Voting, Single Transferable Vote, Approval Voting, and Range Voting. What these systems amount to are ways to avoid polarization, and to allow for more people to compete by allowing voters more options with their votes.
Politics has always been of an interest to me. Interacting with many different people is an aspect of all of our lives, and there's something I find hopeful in people trying to better our overall environment. I often feel let down and cynical about our current circumstances, but optimistic about what can come down the line. At times, I really believe that if there were a wider dialog, if people were voting in order for their voice to be heard, that this would make a positive difference. The marketplace seems to be the only place of really honest communication, because sooner or later people have to commit. Politics doesn't have that level of commitment, so it's often full of hot air and not much else. So what would be exciting would be people standing by the beliefs they now feel empowered to voice.
I don't know if it would all work. And people can get hung up on any voting process, and not do anything about getting things done. Because, in the end, the government or any external entity won't magically make things better. But bigger and conversations can help accomplish a lot. I have the link for the book already, so here are some voting sites that it mentions. Check them out, you might find them enlightening, especially if you find yourself in a position where you need to herd cats:
http://www.fairvote.org
http://www.rangevoting.org
http://www.approvalvoting.org
http://www.approvalvoting.com
http://www.wiki.electorama.om/wiki/Main_Page
http://www.zesty.ca/voting
Due to a flood of spamming, I'm attempting a revamp at my forums section. I'll post when I can get a more workable system in place.
Aaron
I thought I'd do some trend spotting on popular terms for some marketing associates:
Hypnosis:
NLP:
Body Language:
Alternative Energy:
Looks like alternative energy is starting to have some upswing recently, whereas the others are seem to have fallen off a little. Possibly a demonstration of room for some buzz creation? Although I wonder if the word "hypnosis" may have been a little overhyped. I think it might be worth exploring if the techniques might benefit from a different name and marketing approach.
A popular discussion across many books I've read recently is the rationality of voting. Just how rational is it for one person to spend an hour or so going to a poll, and voting for a specific candidate? The overall idea is that it will be very likely that one vote would change the outcome of an election. Even if the politician a voter wanted in office would somehow be able to get them a billion dollars in benefits, the shot of being the voter that put her or him over the top is so small, it doesn't make economic sense to vote.
I think you could make an argument that voters are actually being rational by flipping the outcome. What if, instead of being 1 billion to the positive, we consider that there is a very small chance that there was an infinitely bad candidate out there. That wouldn't mean that they would lose infinite money (that's impossible), but they could cause what we could consider infinite damage (witness the worst acts of the 20th century). I think that fits with how campaigning works, in particular negative campaigns. We are motivated by loss, and fear of things that could happen. People who vote might not be entirely irrational in seeking some unlikely benefit, but instead doing just that little bit to prevent what they perceive as the possible worst case scenario.
There are benefits to people acting on that kind of fear. One is the fact that with a uniform set of voters showing up, nobody gets to totally hijack an election. Politicians need to be at least responsive enough to the people who show up. It also keeps the debate focused. Politicians have to appeal to what people are concerned about. Where voters become irrational, in my eyes, is not in the act of voting, but what they want and expect from their elected officials. But that would be the subject of several other posts!
Incidentally, here's a book that discusses some possibly irrational thinking in the electorate:
It was apparently released earlier, so here's a link. Bascially, Americans have driven 11 billion less miles than a year prior, which is a 5% drop. This is in response to the rise in gas prices. What I find very important in this is that the price of gas is still rising. Worldwide consumption is the driving force in all of this. Americans, I believe, are making the transitions to a long term change. I am hoping for the technology to come along that gives us better performing cars and equipment, but, in the meantime, I believe it's safe to say that the era of cheap gas is coming to a close. What I find disheartening is the attempt to preserve the illusion that we should just be entitled to the cheap gas we were purchasing not long ago. Don't get me wrong, I wish I was paying a buck a gallon or less. And bringing refineries online would increase the gas supply. But the demand for crude oil is increasing as well. We all need to make the best, rational decisions in the face of this issue. People can get emotionally fired up about the pricing set by OPEC, or the big oil companies, but in the end, they are charging what the market will bear.
Long story short: call Matt and start looking into efficient energy alternatives!
With Nudge and Sway on their way to the top of my reading list, I wanted to take a minute to put out my thoughts on how irrationality is related to influence. I think this is important when considering how to influence people with integrity. I believe that the "irrational" actions we are taking are remnants from prior times when they were actually good decisions to make in order to survive. For instance, a group that reciprocates with one another will survive longer than one that doesn't not, because individual members are looking after each others interests. We can be "cued" to reciprocate, because that is triggering something deep. It might not make economically rational sense, but it does make sense when viewing the overall survival of the set of genes being reproduced over millennia.
People could become very rich by false cuing. I think there's a lot of money to be made by using deficits in how we approach decision making. It's important, then,. to consider what a particular message is using in order to make a sale or to gain commitment. I understand every message will use different techniques, and having a bland message will be completely ignored. But just as it's wrong for a used car salesman to paint over structural defects of a car, it isn't right to use very persuasive techniques to peddle snake oil. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but there does seem to be an undercurrent of manipulation out there when it comes to persuasion and influence. As I've said earlier in this blog, there is an ongoing communication going on between you and the people you deal with in every situation. People can be irrational as they approach different decisions. Our job should always be to lead them to a rational choice, which fulfills some need/want/desire of theirs.
Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
For my Father-in-Law's birthday, my wife and I went with her parents to Annapolis for the day. We went on the tour of the US Naval Academy, and it's pretty impressive to see what the midshipmen do in order to earn their commissions. The system there shows that we are really motivated by more than just money. Certainly going to a service academy can lead to financial success, but that is very likely something that will come later on, after the men and women have done their service to their country. It's hard not to feel indebted to all that they've given us with their sacrifice, whether it is their duty in the given role, or their physical and mental well being, or even their very lives. I think we could learn a lot about their dedication, drive, etc. But, for this Memorial Day, I just want to ask that we remember that they are doing this all for us. They put on their uniforms, endure harsh training conditions and move to harsher conditions in dangerous places, all so that we can lead the lives we lead. Thank you to all who have served us in this way. We couldn't be who we are without you.
I’ve read a lot of pop-econ books as of late, so I thought I’d put together a little recap. These are some of the highlights of what have overall been some very enlightening books:
Freakonomics: This is the godfather of all the recent books. It made a huge impact on the field, opening the way to authors who finally had a book to say “THAT! I wanna write something like that!” The book collects some very interesting studies that attempt to get at real world economics. Cheating in sumo wrestling, dishonesty among realtors, and a very controversial take on the relationship between abortion and crime. It’s a worthwhile book to help you think about economics more broadly than just boring numbers about the value of the dollar and interest rates (though these can be very exciting, if you read about them).
The Economic Naturalist: Another writer described this book as being high concept low detail, where Freakonomics was low concept high detail. I think that is a pretty apt description. The Economic Naturalist are essays that answer questions about how things work in the world. Where Freakonomics looked at statistical details, this book answers questions based on economic principles, which assumes that people and companies make rational decisions. Definitely worth the read for clear, concise examples of economic thinking.
More Sex is Safer Sex: A very opinionated book with a libertarian slant. The author is quite a bit crankier about his answers, but if you don’t let the writing style get to you, there’s a lot of interesting ideas to find. The title refers to a study that suggests if there was limited promiscuity amongst a wider group of people, there would be less outbreaks of STD’s. You’ll have to read the book to get the details. If controversial ideas like that are of interest, this is the book for you.
Discover Your Inner Economist: Another high-concept book. Definitely oriented to how to think and approach different situations, this book takes the incentive idea and applies it to everyday life. Where other books focus more on describing economics of the everyday, this focuses more on prescriptions for making good choices. A fun book, I would recommend this one after reading some of the other ones.
Predictably Irrational: This book looks at one of the central ideas to economics: rationality. Economists assume that people will make the best rational decision for the circumstances they’re in. This book covers research that challenges that viewpoint. Behavioral economics is the newest branch of economics, and is extremely important to understand. It’s also a fascinating sub-discipline of psychology, looking at how we make our everyday decisions. While there may be some debate about how much rationality and irrationality there is in the human psyche, this is all important material to digest. Very highly recommended.
The Logic of Life: A good counterpoint to the book above, this book approaches things from a traditional economic standpoint, while still acknowledging the irrationality that can come into play. This book would probably be mid-concept mid-detail, with discussions of studies as well as their ideas and implications. This book as well as the author’s prior The Undercover Economist serve as good crash courses in basic economic thinking.
